Texas Power Grid at Risk Every Three Years

Despite reported improvements to the electric grid, recent simulations by ERCOT suggest systems blackouts are possible every few years, particularly during significant winter storms akin to those experienced in December 2022 and February 2021. This development follows a directive from the Public Utility Commission in January 2023 for ERCOT to establish a reliability standard, with ongoing collaborative efforts between the two entities to define and enhance this standard.

In response to concerns and inquiries from the Public Utility Commission, ERCOT provided a detailed spreadsheet and addressed additional questions, including using a 42-year historical weather data estimate and considerations for winter weatherization efforts since February 2021. The discussions revealed that the weatherization standards implemented have made a notable impact. However, questions arose regarding the frequency of potential outages, with a .31 loss of load expectation for 2023, suggesting the possibility of outages occurring once every three years. ERCOT's senior vice president and chief operating officer clarified that this frequency aligns with the simulated results and emphasized the positive influence of weatherization efforts.

As discussions continue, ERCOT expects to incorporate conservative operations in future simulations, considering the potential impact on energy costs. Additionally, the power grid manager will update its calculations to include the 2022 average price for natural gas. The timeline for the release of the updated simulation remains uncertain, with the next Public Utility Commission open meeting scheduled for December 14.

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